The current market, while not necessarily at the bottom, is definitely in the bottom area.

So, with each rebound, the market will shout out the slogan of a reversal, the bull market is coming.

In 2024, whenever the market has a certain level of rise, people will shout that the bull market is coming, and some will shout that there will be a surge of 500 points.

But more often, as soon as this voice appears, the market will immediately hit a muffled stick, trapping a group of retail investors.

Rebound is to let people reduce losses at high points and run away.

And a reversal is to let people buy at low levels, hold for a long time, and make money.

The two forms seem similar, but in fact, they are very different. Once the judgment is wrong, the loss of coming and going is very large.

Especially when the market is in an area close to the bottom and there is a rebound, it is often mistakenly regarded as a reversal.

This is why there are so many investors who are trapped above 3000 points this year.

Because they mistakenly think that crossing 3000 points is a strong cycle, and they think the market is going to reverse.The actual situation is that the 3000-point mark just happens to be the high point of the rebound, a key position where one should consider reducing their holdings.

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The so-called dividing line between bull and bear markets is not really at the 3000-point mark, but rather in the medium to long-term trends of the market.

The rebounds and reversals of the market are somewhat easier to judge compared to those of individual stocks.

This is because individual stocks have an uncertain factor, or a differentiated factor, known as performance.

Fluctuations in performance can affect the direction and trend of individual stocks, but the index is basically unaffected.

The index is a collection of individual stocks, including both high-quality and low-quality ones, but overall, the performance level is easier to judge and estimate, and the fluctuations are smaller.

That is, the rise and fall of the index is not actually highly correlated with the overall performance of listed companies.

This is why one can use valuation, combined with technical cycles and volume, to determine the market's bottom.

And whether the rise from the bottom is a rebound or a reversal.Here are a few key points that can effectively determine the difference between a rebound and a reversal.

Firstly, observe the sustainability of trading volume.

The sustainability of trading volume is the only necessary factor to determine whether it is a rebound or a reversal.

Because the continuation of an uptrend requires the continuity of trading volume.

The better the sustainability of trading volume, the greater the chance of an uptrend.

We all know that as prices rise, trading volume tends to increase.

This logic is simple because as the price goes up, more capital is needed to drive it.

If there is no capital willing to take over at high positions, the uptrend will naturally come to a halt.

High volume at high levels is not terrible; the problem arises when the volume shrinks after the surge.

Therefore, the main difference between a rebound and a reversal is to see whether the trading volume continues in the middle and later stages, or whether it gradually shrinks as it goes along.Secondly, observe the medium and long-term trends.

Most people like to look at the daily line level to judge the trend.

This approach is wrong, and it is a big mistake.

The daily line must obey the weekly line, and the weekly line must obey the monthly line.

The level of rebound usually does not exceed the weekly line level, or it requires several superimposed weekly line rebounds to appear at the monthly line level.

This is the power of the trend.

Reversal itself is to change the trend, so positive feedback will appear on the monthly line.

You just need to judge whether the monthly line can break through the key resistance line, that is, the medium and long-term trend line, to judge the level of the rebound.

If the positive line penetrates the trend line of the monthly line level, then it can be called the arrival of the reversal.

Third, observe the direction of the leading sectors.In every market cycle, whether it is a rebound or a reversal, there will be leading sectors.

To put it another way, it is called the main line.

If the main line is still running wildly, it means that the market has not ended, and if the main line repeatedly hits new highs, it is basically a reversal market.

Every major bull market has a main line, which is the key to the market.

The rebound at the weekly level also has a main line, but this main line, at most, lasts 3-5 months, and the increase space is also relatively limited.

By observing the direction and sustainability of the main line sector, it is also possible to grasp the market level and make the correct judgment.

Fourth, look at the success or failure of the core logic.

In fact, behind every bull market, there is a core logic.

The market must get rid of the downtrend and walk out of the trend, rather than a rebound, there must be something different.

In fact, this point has not been seen.Some may say that with the reform of the system, more dividends, more delistings, and a core logic in the market.

What is the core logic? Is it to keep the good and eliminate the bad, and to develop in an orderly manner?

If that's the case, then we have to wait for the market to pick out the good ones and remove the bad ones, which requires a process.

Compared with the stock reforms and mergers and acquisitions in the previous bull markets, the system reform here is not really a core logic.

Including new quality productive forces, these are not core logics either. What we can see now is that the logic that may be established is to become a strong financial country.

This seemingly empty statement is similar to the previous "China Special Evaluation," but if it is forcibly defined as a logic, it is also possible.

Among the four aspects, the first two are more inclined to be technically understood as a reversal, and the latter two are more inclined to be the main line of the bull market logic given by the market.

In fact, they are complementary to each other.

To get rid of the bear market, it is necessary to draw a blueprint for the future, and at the same time, to invest real money, rather than just shouting slogans.Finally, let's talk about the rebound and reversal of individual stocks.

The reversal of an individual stock is based on a fundamental premise, which is that the performance must be stable.

Here, it is important to note that it is not about the growth of performance, but the stability of it.

The bottom of the reversal is based on the repair of valuation.

As for whether a trend of a significant market can be formed, it is based on the expectation of performance growth to judge.

If the performance cannot be stabilized, any rebound can only be treated as a rebound.

Especially now, as the delisting system is increasingly perfected.

Avoid stocks with hidden performance mines, and any rebound is an opportunity to escape.

After the above conditions are met, then look at the reversal of individual stocks.

The reversal of individual stocks also needs to meet the convergence of the bottom chips.In simple terms, the reversal of individual stocks is brought about by the continuous buying by the main force at the bottom. Only when the chips are completely back in the hands of the main force will the bottom be truly solid. The characteristic of this solid bottom is that each low point is moving upwards. The main force will not let itself lose money, and once the chips are concentrated, the stock price will naturally be raised, and it is rare to see new lows again. Therefore, technically, the biggest difference between a rebound and a reversal is whether there is a second bottom. As for the trading volume mentioned earlier, individual stocks are not quite the same. The vast majority of stocks that reverse do not have a large trading volume at the bottom, because the main force is very covert in absorbing chips, and there are not so many chips at the bottom, and the situation of large volume is relatively rare. A moderate increase in volume at the bottom, the stock price is pulled up, and the second bottom is no longer broken, which is a sign of a reversal trend. Combined with the monthly cycle, as well as comprehensive factors such as valuation, performance, and market liquidity, it can be determined that the reversal is established. For any rebound, treat it as a rebound first, don't always think about reversal, there is only a major reversal trend every few years, and individual stocks are about the same.