CITIC Securities has already built a bottom ahead of time.

17.26, 17.35, the bottom structure and form have already shown their initial prowess.

In every bull market, securities firms complete the bottom building a few months in advance, and funds are already lying in wait for the leading securities firms.

In the 2019 market, CITIC also completed the bottom building in October 2018.

In the 2014 market, CITIC even carved out the bottom at the beginning of 2012.

In the big drop of 2008 and the big rebound of 2009, CITIC also saw the bottom in advance in September 2008.

Even in the big bull market of 2006-2007, CITIC also saw the bottom in March 2005, while 998 appeared in early June.

It can be said that all history has proved that the securities sector, especially the leading securities firms, definitely know in advance that the bull market is coming.

This point also proves one thing, 2635 is not the real bottom.

Even if the Shanghai Composite does not break through 2635 in the future, other sectors are likely to test the validity of the bottom of 2635, and even break through.The real starting point of a bull market will never forget the role of securities firms.

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Perhaps many retail investors are skeptical, but from the experience of the past few decades, the same signs have appeared at the end of each bear market.

Even at the end of each bear market, retail investors are pessimistic about the continuous decline of securities firms, but it does not affect the rise of securities firms time and time again.

The rise of securities firms is not affected by any fundamentals, nor is it troubled by performance.

Because as long as the bull market really appears, the performance of securities firms is bound to rise.

Therefore, in the bull market, the speculation of securities firms does not look at performance at all, it is all about expectations, or even directly about the story of the big bull market.

Regardless of whether retail investors believe it or not, securities firms are unique in adhering to the principle that "the ducks know the warmth of the spring river first."

Although some securities firms have started to build a bottom in advance, the entire securities industry has not yet confirmed the bottom signal.

The real bottoming of securities firms, or the construction of a big bull market, will definitely appear with several signals.Firstly, the brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in trading volume and a sharp rise in prices.

Every time there is a true bottom, the brokerage sector will experience a significant increase in trading volume and sharp price rises.

In fact, at the bottom of 2635, there were signs of a sharp rise in the brokerage sector, but the trading volume did not increase.

The lack of volume led to the lack of sustainability and the absence of leading stocks in the brokerage sector at this bottom.

A significant increase in trading volume is a necessary condition, but it is not the only one.

An increase in volume means a large influx of funds into the brokerage sector, which is a key signal for the start of a bull market.

To determine whether the brokerage sector is just a trick or really about to start a bull market, both trading volume and the increase in prices are indispensable.

Secondly, the brokerage sector has seen a widespread surge in stock price limits.

If the brokerage sector is really about to start, it is not just a few brokerage stocks that are starting, but a widespread and large-scale surge in stock price limits.

At least ten or more brokerage stocks hitting the price limit can be considered a widespread surge in stock price limits.The reason why a large-scale limit-up is considered a bull market is due to different trading methods. Normally, to hype up securities firms, it is often the case to drive 1 or 2 firms to hit the limit-up, which stimulates market sentiment. However, there is no capital willing to close the board on some large-cap securities firms, so they usually rise by 5-8% and then go down. But when it comes to a bull market, it is a real scramble for shares, and no major securities firm will be missed. At this time, a large-scale limit-up wave will emerge, and funds that are late to react will rush into the securities firms that have not yet risen. It is even entirely possible for securities stocks to hit the limit-up collectively. Thirdly, there are signs of large and medium-cap securities firms starting up. In a bear market, there are many opportunities for small securities firms. But when a bull market starts, it is the world of large securities firms. The large securities firms mentioned here do not necessarily have to be the top few, but they are often starting from a market value of tens of billions, at least in the middle and waist securities firms.Securities brokerage leaders often start with speculative funds of several billion, which small brokers simply cannot compete with for the attention of large capital.

When you notice these mid-tier brokers starting up and experiencing consecutive daily limit-ups, do not doubt it, the bull market has truly arrived.

In any bull market, this rule has almost never been wrong.

Moreover, in a true bull market, the first leader in securities is usually speculated to start with a threefold increase.

A twofold increase is often just a phased rebound in a bear market.

Many investors are dissatisfied with the securities sector, thinking that this sector is full of "bad boys," which is because they have not stepped into the bull market of securities; all they have experienced are rebounds and pulses in a bear market.

As for the most recent bull market in securities, it was actually in June 2020.

At that time, the leader was Everbright Securities, with the stock price rising from just over 10 to just over 30.

The entire speculation lasted 2-3 weeks, and the index also soared directly from 2800 to 3400 points.This was also the fastest rising phase of the index in the last bull market.

It can be seen that, in the bull market, the securities firms that can truly drive the index to rise must be an important weight.

I will not go over the previous ones in detail; those who are interested can go and study them.

If we put aside the case of CITIC Securities and look at companies like East Money, CICC, China Merchants Securities, and CITIC Construction Investment, etc., what is the overall position of the current securities firms?

I think everyone can refer to the overall trend of securities firms at the bottom of each bear market.

Securities firms at the end of a bear market will have several distinct characteristics.

First, the downtrend slows down.

Looking at the weekly and monthly trends, securities firms are definitely declining at the end of a bear market.

However, the extent of this decline will slow down.The consensus on capital is that it is approaching the end of a bull market, so naturally there will not be a large-scale sale of chips.

The decline is just an index drop, which leads to a passive downward trend in securities firms.

Secondly, the volume is shrinking.

At the end of the bear market, the chips of securities firms are more valuable.

In fact, the large capital that speculates on securities firms is not very willing to cut meat at the bottom.

Therefore, it is also natural for the entire securities sector to show a reduction in volume.

However, the reduction in volume does not conflict with the increase in volume at the bottom, and if there is no volume at the start, it is impossible to start a bull market.

Thirdly, there are occasional pulse markets.

Securities firms in the bear market are not without markets, but there are sporadic pulses.

This pulse market is not necessarily a one-day trip, sometimes it is a two-day trip, or a three-day trip.In essence, the market is still dominated by a gradual decline with reduced volume.

This gradual decline is akin to digging a pit, while the pulse is a sign of accumulating shares.

Looking at the time cycle, the tail end of the bear market for securities firms is getting shorter and shorter.

It will not be more than half a year at most, and it might be within 2-3 months that we will see the bottom.

However, there is no need to guess right now where the bottom is, or what the position and price of the bottom will be.

Because the true bottom will have clear signals, with increased volume, a big bullish candlestick, and a surge of limit-up stocks, none of which will be missing.

Lurking is not only painful but also not very valuable.

After all, securities firms are a large sector, and for retail investors, there are still many shares available, so the significance and value of lurking are not great.

For those who believe that the bull market will not return and that securities firms will not have a big market again.

One can only give a faint smile, in the end, time will prove the market's choice, just wait for the answer.